Welcome to INJSUR
You have access to every feature. This guide walks through how to use each tool to make smarter fantasy and betting decisions.
INJSUR Tools
Click any card to jump to that feature — or use the sidebar to navigate.
Your Roster
Build a 12-player fantasy roster. Frailty scores refresh every visit — picks are saved locally.
- Pick QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX + 4 BONUS slots
- Sort by PPR, half-PPR, or standard scoring
- Roster persists on your device across sessions
Player Search
Search every NFL player. Default sort is Best Picks — players ranked by high PPR combined with low frailty risk. Click any row for the full report.
- Filter by position — QB, RB, WR, TE, DL, LB, DB, K, P
- Default sort: Best Picks (highest PPR + lowest risk). Also sort by PPR, Std, Half-PPR, or frailty
- Shows key prop lines alongside frailty scores
Risers & Fallers
Track frailty momentum. See whose durability is improving — and whose is trending the wrong way.
- Frailty ↓ = improving (lower injury risk)
- Frailty ↑ = worsening (higher injury risk)
- Weighted by PPR value so high-impact movers rank first
Teams & Players
Browse every NFL roster by team. Drill into individual player frailty reports with one click.
- 32 NFL teams with logos and conference/division info
- Filter rosters by position within each team view
- Full position-aware frailty report for every player
Understanding frailty scores
Every player gets a frailty score — a durability index on a natural 0–100 scale, not a percent chance of injury. Higher means more fragile, and the score is exactly what the model produces: most of the league sits low, and the players carrying real workload, contact, and injury history rise — sometimes above 90.
A 2–3 point swing on this scale is substantial. The bands below span only 5–7 points each — a small delta is the difference between a starter you trust and one you hedge. Traditional rankings on ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper routinely separate players by fewer than 5 spots; the same logic applies here. If you'd trade two rank spots for durability, a 2-pt frailty gap is the equivalent signal. In 2025 backtesting, players in the elevated-risk bands missed time at ~1.7× the league base rate.
A 2–3 point swing on this scale is substantial. The bands below span only 5–7 points each — a small delta is the difference between a starter you trust and one you hedge. Traditional rankings on ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper routinely separate players by fewer than 5 spots; the same logic applies here. If you'd trade two rank spots for durability, a 2-pt frailty gap is the equivalent signal. In 2025 backtesting, players in the elevated-risk bands missed time at ~1.7× the league base rate.
Under 55 · IRONMAN
He plays. That's the whole scouting report. Start with full confidence.
55–61 · STEEL
Bends, doesn't break. Start him and forget him.
62–67 · OAK
Solid. Not indestructible. Nothing in the data yells — yet.
68–73 · CHIPPED
Something's started. Have a safer option you actually like.
74–79 · CRACKED
It's showing. Ride him if you have to, don't lean on him. In 2025 backtesting, elevated-risk players missed time at ~1.7× the league base rate.
80 and up · GLASS
You know what this means. You've rostered this guy before. Players at 80+ carry the league's highest measured durability risk.
Building your fantasy roster
The roster builder helps you track your team's overall frailty exposure at a glance.
1
Go to Your Roster in the sidebar (or click the card above)
Pick your format at the top — Season-Long (12 slots: QB, RB1, RB2, WR1–3, TE, FLEX, four BONUS), DraftKings Classic, or FanDuel Full Roster. Each format saves its own lineup.
2
Click any empty slot to open the player picker
Search by name or team. The picker shows every offensive player with their current frailty score next to their name. Pick players you roster across your real fantasy teams.
3
Monitor your roster's overall frailty
The summary at the top shows your average frailty and flags any player above 70. A roster averaging below 60 is well-positioned for the season.
4
Picks save automatically — revisit anytime
Your 12 picks are stored on your device. When you return, frailty scores are recalculated from the latest stats — so you always see fresh numbers.
Using Player Search
The fastest way to compare frailty scores across the entire league.
1
Open Player Search from the sidebar
Every player in the league is loaded into a searchable, sortable table.
2
Filter and sort to find what you need
Narrow by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/etc.). The default sort is Best Picks (highest PPR + lowest risk). You can also sort by PPR, standard, half-PPR, frailty (low→high for safest, high→low for riskiest), or DraftKings salary.
3
Click any row for the full position-aware report
The report shows the frailty score with a progress bar, injury history, fantasy stats, key prop lines, and a position-specific assessment verdict.
4
Use the "Key prop" column for betting context
Each row shows the player's primary prop line (rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards, or tackles). Cross-reference this with frailty to find value.
How to use INJSUR for DFS (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Player salaries are DFS pricing, not real money. DraftKings assigns every player a fantasy "salary" that counts against a $50,000 cap when you build a lineup. These are not NFL contract values — they're the price you pay to roster a player in a DFS contest. Live DK Classic salaries appear on every player card, in search results, and in the roster summary.
Cash games: Sort Player Search by DK salary and compare frailty side-by-side. Two RBs priced at $6,200 — take the one below 55 frailty. Cash games are won by avoiding zeros.
Tournaments (GPP): Flip the logic. Target high-frailty, high-ownership players as fades, and use low-frailty alternatives at the same salary as leverage plays.
Salary-tier decider: When two players project similarly and cost the same, take the lower frailty. The Your Roster builder tracks total salary against the cap so you can build a full lineup and identify overpriced durability risks.
How to use INJSUR for prop betting
High-frailty players vs. volume-priced lines: A running back at frailty 78 with a rushing-yard line of 84.5 carries physical volatility the market may not have priced in. A mid-game tweak caps his snap share — durability risk is a dimension the line doesn't show.
Overs on low-frailty workhorses: A back at frailty 41 on a team with a healthy offensive line is positioned for volume. The book prices off recent production — INJSUR adds the durability dimension.
Same-game parlays: Building an SGP around a QB's passing-yard over? Check his top-2 receivers' frailty first. If both are above 70, the correlated injury risk kills the parlay — swap the receiving leg.
Game vs. Game tab: The model computes a frailty edge for every matchup. When the skill-group frailty gap between two teams is large, there's a measurable edge on the healthier side.
How to use INJSUR for season-long fantasy
Draft day: Use Player Search sorted by frailty (low→high) to build a "safe" tier list. When two players project similarly, take the lower-frailty option.
Trade deadline: Check Risers & Fallers daily. A player trending up in frailty (getting riskier) while still producing is a sell-high candidate — move them before the market adjusts.
Waiver wire: When a starter goes down, sort Player Search by PPR filtered to the replacement's position. Find the highest-PPR, lowest-frailty replacement available.
Bankroll discipline rule: Cap your total weekly exposure (DFS + props) to any player with frailty ≥ 80. One simple rule that materially cuts tail risk over a full season.
Pro tips & power user moves
Set your roster once, check it daily. Your 12 picks stay saved. Revisit after waivers clear or after big injury news — frailty updates automatically on each visit.
Reset Risers & Fallers after major news. The "Reset Trends" button clears the stored frailty history. Use it after roster moves, trades, or when you want a fresh baseline.
Frailty is position-calibrated. A QB at frailty 60 and a RB at frailty 60 do NOT carry the same risk. The model is trained position-by-position — the number means the same statistical risk within each position group.
Check the "Durability edge" on Game vs. Game cards. For each game, INJSUR computes which team's skill players are healthier and quantifies the physical volatility edge — use it to weigh market lines against real-time durability risk.
Use the 2025 Results tab for validation. The full backtest recomputes every player's pre-season frailty against actual 2025 injury outcomes — 72% ROC-AUC out-of-sample, all computed live in your browser.
FAQ
What teams and positions are covered?
The platform covers all 32 NFL teams across every major position group: QB, RB, WR, TE, FB, OL, DL, LB, DB and KR. 920+ skill-position players are scored and ranked daily, with OL, defense, and return specialists also graded. Each position has its own calibrated scoring curve. Kickers and punters are excluded.
Is the frailty score updated in real time?
The score is recalculated on every page load from the latest available stats. It is a pre-game durability signal — designed to inform decisions before Sunday's slate, not during it.
How was the model validated?
The frailty model is fit on 2024 notable-injury labels with pre-2024 features only, then evaluated out-of-sample against the 2025 injury set. Out-of-sample: ROC-AUC 72%, top-20% capture 32%, elevated-risk lift ~1.7×, 78% of injured players ranked in the top half pre-season. Every number is recomputed live on the 2025 Results tab.
How do I read the Risers & Fallers?
Frailty going down (↓) is good — the player's injury risk is improving. Frailty going up (↑) is bad — risk is increasing. Both lists show the top 20, updated daily against the previous day's baseline, and changes are weighted by PPR value so high-impact fantasy players are surfaced first. When no day-over-day data exists yet, players are ranked as risers (low frailty, high value) and fallers (high frailty, high value) instead.
What does the "Durability edge" on game cards mean?
INJSUR compares the average skill-group frailty (QB, RB, WR, TE) between the two teams. When one side is significantly healthier, the card flags a durability edge and grades the size of the gap from Slight to Extreme. It quantifies the physical volatility between the two rosters so you can weigh market lines against real-time durability risk — it is not a staking recommendation.