INJSUR · NFL Player Frailty Analytics

Players analyzed

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Aggregating league rosters…

Teams covered

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Roster CSVs ingested.

League avg frailty

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Model output across every player.

High-risk players

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Frailty score ≥ 75.

INJSUR Tools

Click any card to jump to that feature — or use the sidebar to navigate.

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Core Tool

Your Roster

Build a 12-player fantasy roster. Frailty scores refresh every visit — picks are saved locally.

Pick QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX + 4 BONUS slots
Sort by PPR, half-PPR, or standard scoring
Roster persists on your device across sessions

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Core Tool

Player Search

Search every NFL player. Sort by fantasy points or frailty. Click any row for the full report.

Filter by position — QB, RB, WR, TE, DL, LB, DB, K, P
Sort by PPR, Std, Half-PPR, or frailty (low→high / high→low)
Shows key prop lines alongside frailty scores

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Core Tool

Risers & Fallers

Track frailty momentum. See whose durability is improving — and whose is trending the wrong way.

Frailty ↓ = improving (lower injury risk)
Frailty ↑ = worsening (higher injury risk)
Weighted by PPR value so high-impact movers rank first

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Team View

Teams & Players

Browse every NFL roster by team. Drill into individual player frailty reports with one click.

32 NFL teams with logos and conference/division info
Filter rosters by position within each team view
Full position-aware frailty report for every player

League leaders by position

Top-5 PPR producers in each fantasy-relevant group, paired with their live frailty score.

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This week's games & DraftKings odds

Kickoff times, venues, broadcast, spreads, totals and moneylines — DraftKings lines when available.

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Welcome to INJSUR

You have access to every feature. This guide walks through how to use each tool to make smarter fantasy and betting decisions.

Understanding frailty scores

Every player gets a frailty score between 40 and 85. The number tells you the statistical probability of a meaningful injury — higher is riskier.

40–50 · Elite Durability

Extremely low injury risk. These players have clean medical histories, manageable workloads, and favorable age/production profiles. Start with confidence.

50–55 · Trusted

Well-below-average risk. Solid every-week starters. The model sees nothing concerning in their workload or history.

55–60 · Stable

Average to slightly-below-average risk. These are your roster anchors — reliable volume, no red flags in the data.

60–65 · Watch

Slightly elevated risk. Worth monitoring. Consider having a backup plan, especially if they're a high-volume touch player.

65–70 · Caution

Above-average injury probability. These players carry meaningful workload or history risk. Limit exposure in cash games.

70–75 · Elevated

High risk. The model sees significant durability concerns. Avoid in cash lineups; only use as tournament differentiators.

75–80 · High Risk

Very high injury probability. In 2025 backtesting, players flagged ≥75 were injured at 7.1× the league base rate.

80–85 · Severe

Extreme risk. These are your highest-exposure players. The simplest bankroll rule: cap weekly exposure to anyone ≥80.

Building your fantasy roster

The roster builder helps you track your team's overall frailty exposure at a glance.

1

Go to Your Roster in the sidebar (or click the card on Home)

You'll see 12 slots: QB, RB1, RB2, WR1–3, TE, FLEX, and four BONUS slots open to any offensive position.

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Click any empty slot to open the player picker

Search by name or team. The picker shows every offensive player with their current frailty score next to their name. Pick players you roster across your real fantasy teams.

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Monitor your roster's overall frailty

The summary at the top shows your average frailty and flags any player above 70. A roster averaging below 60 is well-positioned for the season.

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Picks save automatically — revisit anytime

Your 12 picks are stored on your device. When you return, frailty scores are recalculated from the latest stats — so you always see fresh numbers.

Using Player Search

The fastest way to compare frailty scores across the entire league.

1

Open Player Search from the sidebar

Every player in the league is loaded into a searchable, sortable table.

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Filter and sort to find what you need

Narrow by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/etc.) and sort by PPR points, standard points, half-PPR, or frailty (low→high for safest, high→low for riskiest).

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Click any row for the full position-aware report

The report shows the frailty score with a progress bar, injury history, fantasy stats, key prop lines, and a position-specific assessment verdict.

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Use the "Key prop" column for betting context

Each row shows the player's primary prop line (rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards, or tackles). Cross-reference this with frailty to find value.

How to use INJSUR for DFS (DraftKings / FanDuel)

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Cash games: Sort Player Search by PPR, then avoid anyone above 70 frailty. Cash games are won by avoiding zeros — not chasing ceiling.

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Tournaments (GPP): Flip the logic. Target high-frailty, high-ownership players as fades, and use low-frailty alternatives as leverage plays.

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Late swap: Check Risers & Fallers before the afternoon slate. A player whose frailty spiked this week is a late-swap candidate.

How to use INJSUR for prop betting

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Unders on high-frailty players: A running back at frailty 78 with a rushing-yard over of 84.5 is a systematic under candidate. A mid-game tweak caps his snap share and tanks the over.

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Overs on low-frailty workhorses: A back at frailty 41 on a team with a healthy offensive line is positioned for volume. The book prices off recent production — INJSUR adds the durability dimension.

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Same-game parlays: Building an SGP around a QB's passing-yard over? Check his top-2 receivers' frailty first. If both are above 70, the correlated injury risk kills the parlay — swap the receiving leg.

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Live Odds tab: The model computes a frailty edge for every matchup. When the skill-group frailty gap between two teams is large, there's a measurable edge on the healthier side.

How to use INJSUR for season-long fantasy

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Draft day: Use Player Search sorted by frailty (low→high) to build a "safe" tier list. When two players project similarly, take the lower-frailty option.

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Trade deadline: Check Risers & Fallers weekly. A player trending up in frailty (getting riskier) while still producing is a sell-high candidate — move them before the market adjusts.

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Waiver wire: When a starter goes down, sort Player Search by PPR filtered to the backup's position. Find the highest-PPR, lowest-frailty replacement available.

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Bankroll discipline rule: Cap your total weekly exposure (DFS + props) to any player with frailty ≥ 80. One simple rule that materially cuts tail risk over a full season.

Pro tips & power user moves

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Set your roster once, check it weekly. Your 12 picks stay saved. Revisit after waivers clear or after big injury news — frailty updates automatically on each visit.

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Reset Risers & Fallers after major news. The "Reset Trends" button clears the stored frailty history. Use it after roster moves, trades, or when you want a fresh baseline.

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Frailty is position-calibrated. A QB at frailty 60 and a RB at frailty 60 do NOT carry the same risk. The model is trained position-by-position — the number means the same statistical risk within each position group.

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Check the "Model edge" on the Live Odds card. For each game, INJSUR computes which team's skill players are healthier and sizes the edge (1u–5u). This pairs naturally with moneyline or spread bets.

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Use the 2025 Results tab for validation. The full backtest recomputes every player's pre-season frailty against actual 2025 injury outcomes. 79% of bettor-relevant injuries had a safer, more productive alternative — all computed live in your browser.

FAQ

What teams and positions are covered?

The platform covers 30 NFL teams across all major position groups: QB, RB, WR, TE, FB, OL, DL, LB, DB, K and P — 850+ players in total. Each position has its own calibrated scoring curve.

Is the frailty score updated in real time?

The score is recalculated on every page load from the latest available stats. It is a pre-game durability signal — designed to inform decisions before Sunday's slate, not during it.

How was the model validated?

The frailty model is fit on 2024 notable-injury labels with pre-2024 features only, then evaluated out-of-sample against the 2025 notable-injury set. Out-of-sample: ROC-AUC 81%, top-20% capture 68%, High-Risk lift 7.1×, 84% of injured players ranked in the top half pre-season. Every number is recomputed live on the 2025 Results tab.

How do I read the Risers & Fallers?

Frailty going down (↓) is good — the player's injury risk is improving. Frailty going up (↑) is bad — risk is increasing. Changes are weighted by PPR value so high-impact fantasy players are surfaced first. When no session-over-session data exists yet, it shows best-value picks and most at-risk contributors instead.

What does the "Model edge" on game cards mean?

INJSUR compares the average skill-group frailty (QB, RB, WR, TE) between the two teams. When one side is significantly healthier, the model flags a side/moneyline edge and sizes it from 1u (lean) to 5u (max). Click the DraftKings link to act on it directly.

Your fantasy roster

Build a 12-player roster across every NFL team. Frailty scores refresh from the latest stats on every visit — picks are saved on this device.

No players selected yet.

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How to use your roster

Each slot filters to players eligible at that position. Click any filled slot to see the full frailty report for that player. The roster summary at the top tracks your average frailty and flags high-risk picks.

Slot breakdown: QB (1), RB (2), WR (3), TE (1), FLEX (RB/WR/TE/FB), and four BONUS slots open to any offensive position — use these for handcuffs, sleepers, or extra starters across leagues.

Player search & rankings

Every player, every team. Sort by fantasy points or frailty — click any row for the full position-aware report.

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Risers and Fallers

Track frailty momentum across sessions. Frailty down ↓ = good (lower risk). Frailty up ↑ = bad (higher risk). When trend data isn't available, shows best-value picks and most at-risk contributors instead.

Calculating frailty trends…

NFL teams

Click a team to load its roster and drill into individual player frailty reports.

Team vs. Team

Select any two teams to compare their frailty profiles side by side. Stack rosters, compare skill groups, and find the durability edge in every matchup.

Team vs. Team comparison — coming soon. This feature will let you select two teams and see their full frailty breakdowns side by side.

Game vs. Game

Every matchup, every week. Click any game to see the full frailty breakdown for both teams — skill group averages, individual player scores, and live odds overlay.

Game vs. Game — coming soon. Click any matchup to expand the full frailty breakdown for both teams in that game.

Worst Bad Beats

The most painful beat-the-injury moments in fantasy football. Coming soon — we're building a dedicated analysis of the worst injury-driven bad beats across multiple seasons, with frailty-backed context on whether each one was foreseeable.

Worst Bad Beats — coming soon. This feature will break down the most brutal injury-driven losses in recent fantasy history, paired with INJSUR's pre-injury frailty assessments.

Overall Team Scores

Pre-season weighted risk for every NFL team — the same metric used on the 2025 Results page. Teams are ranked from highest to lowest durability risk. Updated weekly.

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Value Picks

Players with the best combination of high PPR production and low frailty — the safest value plays in the league. Use these to find durable starters at every position.

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At Risk

The most at-risk contributors in the league — high PPR producers with elevated frailty scores. These are the players most likely to cost you a week.