Nobody was looking at who was going to get hurt.

Week 1, 1991. Randall Cunningham's knee goes out on the first play of the second quarter, taking my entire year with it. I didn't lose because I scouted performance wrong. I lost because nobody was even asking the injury question.

Thirty-five years later, here is the tool I wanted that morning. Every NFL player, scored 1 to 100 "Frailty Score" for how likely they are to break down this season. Ironman at the bottom. Glass at the top. Type a name and find out.

Score Any Player Free

No account. No card.

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Pick a Player.
See the Risk Score.

Try 5 free picks — search any NFL player, get a real frailty report. No account, no card.

Free Sample Picks

Search any player · see their full frailty report · 5 picks remaining

What's Inside

Full Featured Interface

This is what you get after signing up. Live data, real players, updated continuously.

Featured

Fantasy Roster Risk Dashboard

Build your 12-player fantasy lineup and watch the aggregate frailty score update in real time. Spot weak links before they cost you a week.

2,900+ Players Scored Every player on all 32 teams — skill positions, offensive line, and defense — ranked and kept current.

Six Risk Tiers Ironman to Glass, calibrated per position. Elevated-risk players miss time at ~1.7x the league injury rate.

Full Frailty Reports Every player gets a detailed report — frailty score, position context, injury history, and durability forecast.

Live nflverse Data Rosters and stats refresh from the official nflverse feed. You're always looking at current data.

Get Full Access — $39/Season

Available Now

Risers & Fallers

Frailty moves during the season — risk rises and falls as real-game data streams in. Track which players are trending up or down week to week, included in your plan with no upcharge.

Premium Feature

Game-by-Game Overalls

Frailty projected per matchup on every game. See the risk picture before kickoff — set lineups, fade props, find edges the injury report won't catch until Sunday morning.

Complete Player Assessments

Position-aware frailty scores for every rostered player — offense, OL, and defense. Sort, search, and compare across the entire league.

Detailed Risk Reports

In-depth breakdowns with injury history, workload analysis, position context, and actionable durability forecasts.

Industry-Leading Data

Historical data from 2000–2026 informing the model. Weekly stat refreshes keep your edge sharp all season long.

The Problem

Everyone knows when a player is hurt. Nobody sees it coming.

By the time ESPN flashes that injury update, the prop has closed, the DFS lineup is locked, and your trade window is gone. You're reacting to news alongside the crowd instead of managing risk before it materializes.

Sportsbooks price the past

Player props are set off recent production and public news — not forward-looking durability. Yet elevated-risk players get hurt at ~1.7x the league rate. That gap never makes it into the line.

Lagging odds

Fantasy platforms show zero risk signal

Rankings and projections tell you what a player did last week — nothing about whether that 20-touch workhorse RB survives Week 8. 78% of 2025's injured players were rankable in the top half of the risk distribution before the season even started.

No forecast

Injury news arrives too late

Analysts work from public practice reports and official designations — information the entire market sees the second it drops. By the time the report posts, the edge is already priced in.

Priced in

The Difference

Everyone else tells you
how to win.
We show you how not to lose.

Use your own rankings, your own picks. INJSUR sharpens your decisions — it doesn't replace your judgment.

Accuracy

~1.7x the injury rate at elevated risk. Validated on the 2025 holdout.

Calibrated on 2024 injuries, validated against the unseen 2025 set — 72% ROC-AUC, ~1.7x the league baseline at elevated risk. Every number recomputable from the 2025 Results tab.

Similarity

Most other sites and apps are 90% the same.

They repackage public injury reports and call it analysis. They show you what already happened — not what's about to.

Pricing

$39/season or $99 for life. No tiers, no upsells, no auto-renew.

Less than one bet for the season. Less than the change in your couch for a lifetime. Every Pro feature ships free to all subscribers — we add value, not fees.

Dirty Little Secrets

The full breakdown — with receipts.

We've got about 10 dense, robust data points — competitor pricing comparisons, methodology breakdowns, validation details. Way too much for a home page. Sign up and check the full Learn More tab for every comparison, every data point, every receipt.

See the dirty little secrets →

How to Use

We've got you covered with 7 different ways.

DFS cash games, prop betting, draft day, dynasty, futures, auction — same frailty score, different edge depending on your game.

Explore all 7 use cases →

INJSUR is a decision-support tool. Past backtest accuracy does not guarantee future results. Use our data alongside your own research — we're here to sharpen your edge, not make decisions for you.

What INJSUR Does

A durability score for every player, before the season starts.

Our proprietary algorithm scores every skill-position player on a 0–100 frailty scale. Higher score = higher injury risk. Built from workload, contact rate, age, injury history, and positional hazard data — not expert opinions or medical reports.

Player Rankings

2,900+ Players Scored

Every player across all 32 NFL teams, scored and ranked with position-aware calibration. QBs through defensive backs — no blind spots.

Multiple Indicators

Risk Tiers

Ironman, Steel, Oak, Chipped, Cracked, Glass — six tiers that read like a scouting report, calibrated per position. Elevated-risk players miss time at ~1.7x the league baseline injury rate.

Your Roster Dashboard

Full reports on your picks!

Build your exact fantasy lineup. Aggregate frailty updates in real time as you swap players — identify weak links before injuries cost you a week.

The model

A logistic-regression and neural-network ensemble informed by 25 seasons of NFL data (2000–2026), weighting each player's notable-injury records from the last five seasons (2022–2026) most heavily. It scores every player based on our trained model output across 20 features: position-specific hazard rates, cumulative workload (carries, targets, sacks, tackles), contact rate, negative-play frequency, YAC exposure, age, experience, and five recency-weighted injury-history variables. This creates a robust, accurate, world-class predictive algorithm that is self updating and can score any player even if it has never seen them before simply based on their stats.

No peeking

The model never sees player names, team IDs, or outcome labels from the season it's predicting. Calibrated on the 2024 injury set, evaluated against unseen 2025 outcomes — 72% ROC-AUC, fully reproducible.

Proof

Real Bettor Outcomes

We scored every 2025 roster pre-season using only pre-2025 data, then checked how those scores sorted against the injuries that actually happened — out-of-sample, on a season the model never saw.

Out-of-sample · 2025 holdout

72% ROC-AUC

Every player was scored using only pre-2025 features — no 2025 outcomes, names, or IDs leaked in. The model ranked the injured player higher 72% of the time. See the full backtest →

Top-20% Capture (2025 holdout)

32%

The riskiest 20% of the pre-season ranking accounted for ~1/3 of all 2025 missed-game injuries — roughly 1.6× a random 20% slice.

Elevated-Risk Tier Lift

1.7×

Players flagged elevated-risk missed time at ~1.7× the league base rate in 2025.

Top-half recall (2025 holdout)

78%

78% of 2025 injured players ranked in the top half of the risk distribution before the season — the durable half produced just ~1 in 5 injuries.

Full honesty: 72% ranking accuracy still leaves 28% of injured-vs-healthy pairs misranked, and no model can predict a purely random contact injury. We publish the real out-of-sample numbers — recomputed live on the Results tab — not cherry-picked ones.

2025 Results

What the model saw
before anyone else.

We fed every notable 2025 injury through INJSUR's pre-season model and asked a simple question: could you have seen it coming? In most cases, the answer was yes.

Out-of-sample · 2025 holdout

72%
ROC-AUC

Ranking accuracy on the unseen 2025 set

Across every (2025-injured · healthy) player pair, the model ranked the injured player higher 72% of the time — using only pre-2025 features. Coin flip is 50%; this is a real, reproducible edge.

Elevated-Risk · 1.7x tier lift

1.7×
tier lift

The risk tier you can act on

Players flagged elevated-risk missed time at ~1.7× the league base rate in 2025 — about 1 in 3 flagged players vs ~1 in 5 league-wide. That gap never makes it into the line.

Concentration

32%
top-20% capture

The riskiest 20% = a third of injuries

The top 20% of the pre-season risk ranking accounted for 32% of all 2025 missed-game injuries — roughly 1.6× what a random 20% slice would catch. That's the tier to hedge.

Separation

78%
top-half recall

The durable half is the safe half

78% of 2025 injured players ranked in the top half of the risk distribution before the season — the durable half of the league produced just ~1 in 5 injuries. See the full backtest →

Pick Your Plan

One Price Gets Everything.

Same features on both plans. $39 for the season, $99 once for lifetime access.

Every plan includes

2,900+ Players ScoredAll 32 teams, every position, daily updates

Position-Aware Frailty ScoresCalibrated separately per QB, RB, WR, TE, defense & specialists

Full Player ReportsInjury history, risk factors, frailty driver breakdown per player

12-Slot Roster BuilderBuild your lineup, see aggregate risk, spot the weak link

Backtested & Validated72% ROC-AUC on the unseen 2025 injury set

Risers & FallersFrailty moves during the season — risk rises and falls as real-game data streams in. Track which players are trending up or down week to week, included with no upcharge.

Team-by-Team OverallsAggregate frailty for every roster — compare teams, spot fragile divisions, plan your season

Game-by-Game OverallsMatchup-level risk projections — know the frailty picture before kickoff, all season long

Ad-Free · No Auto-RenewNo ads, no spam, one-time payment

2026 Season Pass

$39 / season

Full access for the entire 2026 NFL season — every team, every player, every week.

Less than one bet for the season.

Best Value Lifetime Membership

$99 / one-time

Pay once — use every NFL season, including every algorithm update and new feature we ship.

Less than the change in your couch for a lifetime.

72% ROC-AUC on the unseen 2025 holdout. Full validation and competitive comparisons available.

See Accuracy & Validation →

Pro & Protect

Pro Features Coming Soon.
Every Subscription Upgrades Free.

Lock in your subscription now and get every Pro feature as it ships — no upsells, no add-on fees. Here's what's on the roadmap.

Pro · Unlock at Launch

Watchlist

Pin your guys. One place to track every player you're monitoring across fantasy, betting, and dynasty — frailty updates on every visit.