72% ROC-AUC out-of-sample on the unseen 2025 NFL injury set — validated, reproducible, and live. Every claim on this page can be reproduced from the public repo.
Other platforms rank healthy players. Only INJSUR prices pre-season durability into your board and validates it against real injury data.
| Capability | Consensus Rankings & DFS Tools | INJSUR.AI | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Season Durability Scoring | Not offered | 20-feature frailty model scored per player | Workload, contact rate, age, experience and injury history quantified before Week 1 |
| Injury-Risk Ranking Accuracy | No pre-season signal (effectively 50% — coin flip) | 72% ROC-AUC out-of-sample on the unseen 2025 injury set | Calibrated on 2024 labels, evaluated against 2025 with time-correct features — no leakage, fully reproducible from the repo |
| Position-Calibrated Risk Bands | Generic "questionable / doubtful / out" labels | Per-position sigmoid calibration (QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB) | A high-risk RB and a high-risk QB mean the same thing on INJSUR’s scale |
| Historical Injury Integration | Current-week status only | 5 recency-weighted injury features (count, severity, games missed, structural, soft-tissue) | A player with two ACL tears scores differently than a player with zero — before they even take the field |
All INJSUR.AI metrics are computed from public NFL statistics. The model is calibrated on the 2024 notable-injury labels and evaluated out-of-sample against the unseen 2025 set. Run the backtest yourself in the app.
Every player was scored by INJSUR’s frailty model using only pre-2025 history in the features. Across every (2025-injured · healthy) pair, the model ranked the injured player higher 72% of the time, and players flagged elevated-risk missed time at ~1.7× the league base rate. The fit never saw 2025 labels — this is the honest pre-season ranking accuracy, recomputed live on the Results tab.
The frailty model that posted those 2025 numbers is now scoring every player on every 2026 active roster — sourced from the official nflverse data feed and refreshed continuously. You see the exact same High-Risk / Medium / Low bands the backtest produced, applied to the season about to start.
| Platform Tier | Brands | Monthly Cost | Annual / Seasonal | What You Get |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-End Aggregators | FantasyPros, Draft Sharks, RotoWire | $3.99 – $11.99/mo (annual lock-in required) |
$72 – $130+/yr | Generic rankings, consensus expert lists, basic draft advice |
| Betting-Focused Data | Action Network PRO, BettingPros | $14.99/wk or $24.99/mo | $100 – $150/yr | Line movements, public vs. sharp money %, sportsbook liabilities |
| Elite DFS / High-Stakes | Establish The Run, RotoGrinders, The Solver | $49.99/mo | $300 – $500+/season | Linear projections, optimizer tools, high-stakes content grids |
| INJSUR.AI | INJSUR.AI | $39/season | $99 Lifetime One-time. Forever. |
Proprietary risk model scoring 20 workload, contact and injury-history features per player — what no one else tracks |
Consensus ranking services cost $72–$130/year. INJSUR gives you injury intelligence for $39/season — no annual commitment, no upsells.
High-stakes players pay $300–$500 every season for projection optimizers. INJSUR.AI's $99 Lifetime Pass gives you the one variable they can't see — forever.
No other platform publishes pre-season durability scores. You can pay $500/year for projections that assume every player stays healthy — or $39 for the tool that tells you who might not.
Calibrated on 2024 injury labels, evaluated against the unseen 2025 set with time-correct features — no names, no IDs, no outcome leakage.
Full honesty: 72% ranking accuracy still leaves 28% of injured-vs-healthy pairs misranked, and no model can predict a purely random contact injury. Every number is recomputed live on the Results tab and reproducible from the repo — not cherry-picked.